Monthly Archives: February 2021

Inflation Accounting

A good macroeconomic model would use national accounts and the flow of funds with behavioural hypotheses. It’s complicated by the fact that prices of goods and services change. It’s not just that if prices of goods and services change, you’re consumption would change in response to that, but also because say the deposits you hold in the bank is worth less.

So your behavioural equations need to be modified. It’s not easy. Wynne Godley recalls in his book Monetary Economics:

And no lesser authority than Richard Stone (1973) made the same mistake because in his definition of real income he did not deduct the erosion, due to inflation, of the real value of household wealth.

References

Stone, R. (1973) ‘Personal spending and saving in post war Britain’ in H.C. Bos, H. Linneman and P. de Wolff (eds), Economic Structure and Development: Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen (Amsterdam: North Holland), pp. 75–98.

The system of national accounts does recognise the importance of this but there aren’t any real variables defined. Real as opposed to nominal. Instead holding gains (formal phrase for “capital gains”) is divided into two parts: real holding gains and neutral holding gains. So,

Nominal holding gains = real holding gains + neutral holding gains.

Assets prices can rise differently than prices of goods and services. Para 12.89 says:

The real holding gain on an asset is defined as the difference between the nominal and the neutral holding gain on that asset. The values of the real holding gains on assets thus depend on the movements of their prices over the period in question, relative to movements of other prices, on average, as measured by the general price index. An increase in the relative price of an asset leads to a positive real holding gain and a decrease in the relative price of an asset leads to a negative real gain, whether the general price level is rising, falling or stationary.

Of course we should consider holding gains and losses on liabilities as well.

This is anyway complicated practically. I haven’t yet seen national accounts of any country producing such tables. But the SNA—including the 2008 SNA—doesn’t have any framework beyond this. This is because it considers that economic behaviour would be different for real holding gains or losses, as opposed to just the flow aspect.

In other words, if your (nominal) income is $100 and there’s a 10% inflation, your consumption would fall. But you might not react the same if you have a real holding loss of $10.

But to a first approximation you could simplify and bring real holding gains into real income. I have simplified quite a bit and these are quite challenging things, so I refer you to Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie’s (G&L)’s book Monetary Economics.

I wrote this post after an online discussion about the government “inflating away the nominal debt”. Although such claims are loaded, there is some logic to it. In inflation accounting, holding gains/losses appear in incomes. Modeling involves going back and forth between real and nominal variables.

An original writing is that of Wynne Godley (and Ken Coutts and Graham Gudgin)—a 1985 paper titled Inflation Accounting Of Whole Economic Systems. In that you see the equation:

(Snipped from the 2012 reprint).

So the government disposable income (in addition to taxes and central bank profits, also has the holding losses due to the fact that prices of goods and services has increased in the period, not just because of changes in prices of government bonds).

Of course, there’s also the loadedness of the phrase “inflating away the debt”. That’s a different matter, my point here is to address the intuition of why inflation can be thought of as bringing revenue to the government and reducing its debt.

The 2021 Godley-Tobin Lecture: Marc Lavoie, “Godley Versus Tobin On Monetary Matters”

This year’s Godley-Tobin lecture is by Marc Lavoie who is talking about Wynne Godley’s versus James Tobin’s approaches.

You can register here.

James Tobin pioneered the stock-flow consistent modeling. He won the Nobel Prize for it. You can find his Nobel lecture Money And Finance In The Macroeconomic Process here.

Although quite brilliant, there are many shortcomings in James Tobin’s approach. The genius of Wynne’s approach was to overcome those.

Link

Interview With Sergio Cesaratto: Draghi And The Italian Melodrama

Mario Draghi is set to become the next Prime Minister of Italy!

From a recent interview with Sergio Cesaratto at Brave New Europe:

Will he be able to do it?

Draghi is a many-headed dragon. He is a Catholic socio-conservative. Somehow a Christian Democrat able to please almost everybody – German friends know what I mean. This is his real skill, which he has shown in running the ECB by skilfully keeping the German representatives’ hardliners at bay. Consensus is important. And he will need a heavy German endorsement (and not all Germans like him). Many in Italy fear his conservative facade. Draghi has been many things: the wretched privatiser of Italian public industry just before he went to work for Goldman Sachs; he declared that the European welfare state had had its day; but in 2014 he made it clear that Europe’s anti-Keynesian economic policy was wrong. There is something for everyone! In his tesi di laurea he even argued that the euro was a bad idea! Let’s remember, however, that in 2023 Italy must hold new elections, and although Renzi (who is a former Christian Democrat) shares Draghi’s Christian social-conservative visions (more CSU than CDU), he is unlikely to have the capacity to create a political background for him. Certainly Renzi might have had something like this in mind (recall that he comes from Tuscany, the land of Machiavelli!).

[The title is the link]

U.S. Net International Investment Position

Although the release is more than a month old, I missed the release. The US international investment position is worsening and in unsustainable territory.

Chart from the BEA release dated 29 December, 2020, with last data point from Q3, 2020:

It’s not plotted relative to gdp, but work that out in your head 😉

Wynne Godley’s analysis before 2008 was simple: the US private sector balance—the difference between private expenditure and private income—was negative continuously and was unsustainable. The reversal—private expenditure falling relative to private income—would lead to a large crisis. And meanwhile the US trade was also weak and a large fiscal stimulus would be needed but because of international trade, the fiscal multiplier won’t be large enough and the recovery would be weak. His papers also forecast rising negative net international position mirrored by large rise in public debt relative to gdp, so to keep a sustainable configuration, the US government should directly address international trade, or else face slow growth.

Wynne’s intuition was that:

… financial balances (relative to income flows) must stay within certain limits if debts are not to grow excessively, implying that the monitoring of these balances may yield a warning that unsustainable processes are at work.

Also, the “investment income” in balance of payments—the flows—stays positive. A lots has been written on it but on the question of sustainability it’s not too important in my view, although of course, once it turns negative it accelerates the already unsustainable position.